Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

  • 15h 50m 5s
  • John Kay, Mervyn King
  • Recorded Books, Inc.
  • 2020

In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter.

Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.

Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting audiobook that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands - the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers.

In this Audiobook

  • Chapter 1 - The Unknowable Future
  • Chapter 2 - Puzzles and Mysteries
  • Chapter 3 - Radical Uncertainty is Everywhere
  • Chapter 4 - Thinking with Probabilities
  • Chapter 5 - A Forgotten Dispute
  • Chapter 6 - Ambiguity and Vagueness
  • Chapter 7 - Probability and Optimisation
  • Chapter 8 - Rationality in a Large World
  • Chapter 9 - Evolution and Decision-Making
  • Chapter 10 - The Narrative Paradigm
  • Chapter 11 - Uncertainty, Probability and the Law
  • Chapter 12 - Good and Bad Narratives
  • Chapter 13 - Telling Stories Through Numbers
  • Chapter 14 - Telling Stories Through Models
  • Chapter 15 - Rationality and Communication
  • Chapter 16 - Challenging Narratives
  • Chapter 17 - The World of Finance
  • Chapter 18 - Radical Uncertainty, Insurance and Investment
  • Chapter 19 - (Mis)Understanding Macroeconomics
  • Chapter 20 - The Use and Misuse of Models
  • Chapter 21 - Practical Knowledge
  • Chapter 22 - Adapting to Radical Uncertainty
  • Chapter 23 - Embracing Uncertainty
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